Scenario lab
Every number below is read off the same normalized risk-neutral density — no extra assumptions.
Scenario inputs
-5.0% vs spot
Implied probability
8.0%
Implied odds
1 in 12.5
Break-even payout for a binary bet
Complement
92.0%
Probability the scenario does not happen
Interpretation
The options market prices a 8.0% chance that SPY closes below $549.48 on Oct 16, 2026.
Reference: 1σ implied move ±3.7%, implied 90% interval $543.29 – $612.92. Risk-neutral probabilities embed a variance risk premium, so downside probabilities typically read higher than historical frequencies.